Fourth COVID Wave Might Hit India In June 2022, Warns IIT Kanpur Team

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Fourth COVID Wave Might Hit India In June 2022, Warns IIT Kanpur Team

The study mentioned above has been conducted by Subhra Sankar Dhar, Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathematics department and has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv.

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India might witness a fourth COVID wave in the middle or late June, and the next surge is to persist for approximately four months, according to a recent study conducted by a team of IIT Kanpur scientists. However, the severity will rely on the nature of the variant and the COVID vaccination status across India.

The study mentioned above has been conducted by Subhra Sankar Dhar, Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathametic department with the help of a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe and has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv. However, it is yet to be peer-reviewed.

When Can India Face 4th COVID Wave?

In the above-mentioned study, the authors stated that the statistics indicate that the fourth coronavirus wave in the country is expected to arrive after 936 days from the initial stats availability date, which is January 30, 2020.

"Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022," the report was quoted as saying by Mint.

Moreover, it also added that around 99 per cent confidence interval for the date when the curve will reach the point of its height is roughly between August 15 to August 31, 2022.

How Impactful Will The 4th COVID Wave Be?

There is always a big chance that a new COVID variant might have an extreme consequence on the whole analysis. The authors also stated that the vehemence of the effect would depend on different factors like infectibility, fatality, etc.

Furthermore, the effect of COVID vaccinations - first, second or booster jabs may also play a significant role in the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various problems related to the fourth COVID wave; the study further added.

How Will The Next Variant Arrive?

According to the new study, the next COVID variant can emerge in two different patterns. Furthermore, they pointed out that there is still no guarantee that the new COVID variant will be less intense than the previously identified ones.

Firstly, the COID Omicron variant continues to mutate, evolving into some sort of Omicron-plus variant that is even more severe than the BA. 1 or BA.2 variant. Secondly, there is a possibility that an unrelated or new variant appears, an evolutionary virologist from Seattle's Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Jesse Bloom told the scientific journal Nature.

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